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Forecasting the next decade
#1


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Jag hittade den här texten på en länk från "Royal Institute for International Relations". Egmont institute är en think-tank för eliten inom EU. http://www.egmontinstitute.be/about.html

Forecasting the next decade20:43, 6 January 2010

By James Rogers and Luis Simón

With the noughties done and dusted, we thought it would be interesting to forecast the most likely and significant events of the coming decade, from 2010 to 2020. This is a difficult endeavour by any account, but nevertheless possible—and necessary. So, here are our projections for the next ten years:

1.The European Union will enlarge to cover Iceland and the Western Balkans, but Turkey will not be admitted.

2.The Franco-German engine will weaken in the European Union, potentially endangering the future of European integration.

3.After initially being very reluctant under a new Tory government, the United Kingdom will work with France to lead the European Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy.

4.Russian power will grow in the European Neighbourhood and Central Asia, while European power in those regions will decline, but only due to a lack of European unity, determination and political leadership.

5.China will become more aggressive politically and economically and will break out of the American ‘grand barrier’ in East Asia, which will lead to the formation of a counter-coalition led by India and Japan, aided by Australia and South Korea (making the United States very nervous).

6.Brazil will emerge as the dominant power in South America, meaning the Western Hemisphere will be more and more in play as tensions between Washington and Brasilia mount.

7.Piracy around the Horn of Africa will get worse, until Europeans eventually muster the courage to intensify their military operation in the region, which will require the naval bombardment of pirate havens on the land.

8.Iran will get bombed, either by Israel or an American-led coalition.

9.The European Union will learn nothing from the Copenhagen fiasco in December 2009 and will continue to hanker after multilateralism, to no avail.

10.There will be another Islamist terror attack on a major European or American city.

Obviously, we hope many of these projections turn out to be very wrong. But grand strategy requires that we plan for the worst, while simultaneously hoping for the best. If the European Union is to keep its head above the water, it seems clear to us that the new foreign minister, Catherine Ashton, has much work to do—and that the Member States must do all they can to support her…

http://europeangeostrategy.ideasoneur ... ecasting-the-next-decade/

Så vad tror ni kommer de börja bomba sönder piraterna i framtiden? Om Sveriges egna pirater får ett större fäste inom EU så kanske de tar fram de stora bomberna?

Posted on: 2010/2/1 4:27
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Re: Forecasting the next decade
#2


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Jag kan tillägga att Egmont institutes president är Bilderbergs egen ordförande Étienne Davignon. Man kan hitta mycket intressant på detta institutet och jag undrar om de har en styrande hand om hur EU utformas. Kanske kommer "blueprint for the EU army" därifrån?


Security & Global GovernanceOverview
The Security & Global Governance Programme is headed by Prof. Dr. Sven Biscop.

It contributes to the debate on a new security concept for the multipolar world of the 21st century. In today's world, security is no longer limited to the military sphere alone. A holistic approach is required, integrating physical security, economic prosperity, political freedom and social wellbeing.

The objective of the European Security Project is to identify the practical implications of the implementation of a holistic European security strategy, from the development of the European Union's military, civilian and diplomatic capacity, transatlantic relations, cooperation between the EU and the United Nations, NATO and the OSCE, to Euro-Mediterranean relations.

The Global Governance Project aims to contribute to a coherent multilateral agenda for the joint management of global issues. Globalisation has made international relations increasingly complex, which has given rise to an unjustified feeling of powerlessness. This project is meant to demonstrate how the European Union, in cooperation with strategic partners, regional organizations and multilateral institutions, can contribute to global governance.

The Middle East Project focuses on the strategic implications of the Sunni-Shia divide in the Muslim world. This project is funded by the Belgian Federal Public Service for Science Policy and is undertaken in cooperation with the universities of Ghent and Louvain-la-Neuve.
http://www.egmontinstitute.be/depsec.html

Posted on: 2010/2/1 4:38
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Re: Forecasting the next decade
#3


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undrar varför dom inte tror det kommer vara någon ny terror attack

Posted on: 2010/2/1 5:37
"-Vi styrs av samling idioter som inte ens är medvetna om att de är fascister." Fahrenheit451
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Re: Forecasting the next decade
#4


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monkey: Det står att dom tror att det blir en ny attack.

Posted on: 2010/2/1 10:50
Administratör och grundare av vaken.se
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Re: Forecasting the next decade
#5


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Sluta rösta så finns inget politiskt system :)

Posted on: 2010/2/2 14:27
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Anonym
Re: Forecasting the next decade
#6
Det behövs inga större terrordåd mer. Förstår ni inte att NWO villkor för övervakning redan är genomförda? Behövs det tightare övervakning behöver de bara hota med små Musse Pigg-angrepp som den misslyckade kalsongbombaren.

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Re: Forecasting the next decade
#7


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oh , så bra var det med läsförståelsen =)

Posted on: 2010/2/2 21:58
"-Vi styrs av samling idioter som inte ens är medvetna om att de är fascister." Fahrenheit451
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Anonym
Re: Forecasting the next decade
#8
Quote:

Filipino-Monkey skrev:
oh , så bra var det med läsförståelsen =)
Ska jag vara helt ärlig så läste jag inte igenom första inlägget, utan svarade på Micros inlägg där det stod "monkey: Det står att dom tror att det blir en ny attack."

EDIT: Det står ju i första inlägget "10.There will be another Islamist terror attack on a major European or American city."

och det tror jag alltså inte.

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Re: Forecasting the next decade
#9


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alarik, saints need sinners :) ... Man skall inte ge bort makten genom att rösta på någon annan, än sig själv, Du får inte ha några andra Gudar än mig, metaforiskt, tänker på en film samtidigt, kommer inte ihåg vad den heter, i alla fall, i slutet så skall man svara på vem eller vart Gud är, och svaret är, jag, eller inom mig själv...

Om man tilläts Gudarespekt, och även delade ut den, oj vilken annorlunda värld vi skulle få då!

Fäljde vi endast den reglen så blir framtiden ganska trevlig är jag övertygad om. Med den regeln försvinner hunger, krig, rassism, förtryck, ja allt.skit..


Posted on: 2010/2/3 0:12
"All the world's a stage, And all the men and women merely players, they have their exits and their entrances, and one man in his time plays many parts, His acts being seven ages. / W Shakespeare
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Re: Forecasting the next decade
#10


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Man ser ju klart hur dessa "think-tanks" tänker och ser hur "puppet politikerna" tänker likadant. Politikerna går i bankirernas och storföretagens intressen och inte i folkets. Det kanske blir svårt att rösta igenom men de kommer antagligen hålla på att "puscha" fram det tills det går igenom?

German minister calls for Lisbon treaty EU army

DEREK SCALLY in Berlin

GERMAN FOREIGN minister Guido Westerwelle has called for the EU to proceed with plans for a European army under the Lisbon Treaty, which he dubbed “the beginning and not the end” of a common security and defence policy.

His remarks at the annual Munich Security Conference followed a call by Berlin’s defence minister Karl Theodor zu Guttenberg to end what he called Nato’s “absurd” practice of unanimous decision-making.

“The (Lisbon) treaty lays out a common security and defence policy. The federal government wants to make progress on this front,” said Mr Westerwelle. “The long-term goal is to build up a European army under parliamentary control. The EU has to live up to political expectations of its role as a global player.” The foreign minister sketched out a role for such an army as crisis management in a time of resource scarcity, to be developed by willing member states over time as a “motor for closer co-operation” in the EU. In a nod to Nato, Mr Westerwelle said such EU structures would not replace other military structures.

Germany’s top diplomat received backing for his plan from his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, who called for a “single European military-political space” in which no one country’s security was sacrificed for another.

“We want to overcome the bloc-thinking of the Cold War in Europe and create a new kind of mutual trust,” said Mr Lavrov.

The weekend meeting in Munich, a think-in for defence players, was dominated by the ongoing standoff with Iran over nuclear uranium enrichment which Tehran says is energy and not military-related, as western countries fear.

EU foreign minister Catherine Ashton said the “possibilities of dialogue are not yet exhausted”, despite clear impatience from other conference speakers.

Iranian foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki made a surprise appearance in Munich, raising hopes of an important announcement, only to dash them again with a general statement about “conducive ground . . . to agreement in the near future”.

Mr zu Guttenberg dismissed Mr Mottaki’s Munich trip as a “farce”.

Turning his attention to Nato, he called on an end to the “cultivated absurdity” of the alliance’s principle of unanimity in decision making. “We talk too much and act too little,” he said.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/w ... 0/0208/1224263954855.html

Posted on: 2010/2/10 11:20
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